Showing posts with label Carry trades. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carry trades. Show all posts

Tuesday, 28 October 2008

CARRY TRADES 101

The New York Times has a great article on the Carry Trades

Japanese ma an pa money traders, known colloquially as Mr and Mrs Watanabe, account for around 30% of the foreign-exchange market in Tokyo by value and volume of transactions, according to currency traders..

And for NZ the news is not good.


Thanks to the Sweeper

MARKETS ARE TANKING AGAIN

From the Guardian - the FTSE, the Hang Seng, Nikkei, all headed south.

Expect more of the same here today.

Am I in the wilderness here, or are we as a nation closing our eyes, saying "dont panic" as the elephant in the room stands on our toes?

Monday, 27 October 2008

AUSSIE MARKETS IN TURMOIL - RBA - BUYS UP TO SHORE UP AUSSIE DOLLAR

Today was another bad day for Australia with the Reserve Bank stepping in to stop a run on the Aussie Dollar - many factors are involved but one of the significant ones is the Asian Carry Trade effect .

We are in a much more precarious situation here in NZ.

So tomorrow will be another interesting day on our own money markets.

We understand that the Govt realises that it is going to have to step in provide a guarantee to the wholesale market - but it wont do anything until late this week so that their " financial skill and prudence" will dominate the media headlines in the last week of the election.


We need a govt that makes decisions on pragmatism not on politics.

This from the AGE


The dollar rebounded from early lows against the US dollar and yen after the RBA confirmed it intervened to shore up the currency.

In recent trading, the dollar was buying 62.22 US cents, after earlier trading near its weakest level in more than five years. Against the yen, the dollar tumbled to 55.1 yen, its lowest level since the end of World War II, before gaining in recent trade to 58.73.

The Reserve Bank confirmed this morning that it had bought Australian dollars in a bid to ensure liquidity for markets.

''What it is increasingly worrying from Australia's perspective is that the Chinese economy is also on the verge of what would be classified as a hard landing,'' said Stephen Koukoulas, Global Strategist at TD Securities.

Stocks extended their falls, touching lows not seen since late 2004, with banks the biggest drag.

Around noon, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 share index was down 55.4 points, or 1.4%, to 3814 points. .

A weaker Australian dollar has mixed consequences for Australia's economy. Exporters with products priced in US dollars, such as mining companies, will book fatter profits in local currency terms.

Importers, though, will be paying more for their products - many of which can only be sourced from overseas - and Aussies planning holidays abroad may start looking closer to home.

And any increase in prices may slow the pace of further interest rates by the Reserve Bank as its board frets over the highest inflation in more than a decade.

Risky business

The Australian dollar's rise to almost parity against the US dollar in mid-July was tied to soaring commodity prices.

Now commodities are falling through the floor and dragging the currency down with it.

"All risky assets have taken a beating in the past week as risk aversion has returned with a vengeance," said Sue Trinh of RBC Capital Markets. "It's all came to a head on Friday."

The closely watched Reuters / Jefferies CRB index slumped a further 3% on Friday, undermining commodity stocks worldwide.

The unwinding of the so-called carry trade - in which Japanese investors in particular bought Australian dollars to benefit from a much higher interest rate than what's available at home - has also pummelled the Aussie.

The Reserve Bank's announcement this morning that it had intervened in currency markets came after speculation of a coordinated intervention by major global central banks circulated on Friday.


That co-ordinated effort "for now has put in place the base but further weakness in coming days below the (60.57 US cents) levels can't be ruled out,'' Ms Trinh said.

Sunday, 26 October 2008

SO HAVE THE BANKS REALLY GOT ENOUGH MONEY TO LAST TO XMAS?

That has been the line that Labour has been running for a while here in the NBR

Here is the pertinent bit

But Dr Cullen said banks were not facing a crisis in the short term, giving the government time to work on details of an extended scheme.

“They will get to a point probably this side of Christmas where they will be needing to review some of their existing loan facilities; now we have plenty of time to work through what an appropriate response might be,” he said.

Dr Cullen emphasised there was no need to rush the scheme through and it was crucial that it be carefully designed to suit New Zealand’s financial sector, which is overwhelmingly owned offshore.



But today's headline in the Herald shows that the banks are at least hedging their bets and with the run on the dollar last week - which is essentially caused by the Carry trade money, the money ma and pa Asian investors have had invested here because of the high returns for depositors. Now they are not reinvesting that mloney and have taken it back home to put under their futons.

So the upshot is we have a little less money in our banks than we did.

And if you want a really really good ( even bustedblonde gets it ) article on the carry trades and their impact check this out at NYTimes here

Thanks to the Sweeper

Monday, 20 October 2008

HICKEY CALLS FOR IMMEDIATE POLITICAL ACTION ON FINANCIAL CRISIS

If you are unsure or unconvinced how serious the current financial situation is then watch this - Remember, the reason that banks are holding their collective breath is they do not want to spook the market while they quietly pray for the politicians to come up with a solution that will give banks more security.

Hickey however says we can't wait and calls for the immediate recall of parliament and a bi partisan solution now..

We agree -

Watch Bernard here

and Hooton has a similar take here

Thursday, 16 October 2008

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS NOT OVER


The markets are up and down like a whores drawers...

Its what a lot of financial pundits predicted - volatility and lots of it..


Its going to be a roller coaster for a while yet..

Wednesday, 15 October 2008

NZ ONE OF 13 MOST " AT RISK" COUNTRIES FROM GLOBAL CREDIT CRISIS

We have been posting on the Iceland issue a lot - ( thanks to the Sweeper) and it seems we were on the money again - We should be watching what happens on the big Popsicle in the North very carefully.

New Zealand is among 13 nations named by BusinessWeek as most at risk from the global financial crisis.

The article compared New Zealand to Iceland because of its heavy dependence on foreign money to fund its current account deficit.

"Like Iceland, New Zealand was a favourite of investors playing the yen carry trade. And like Iceland New Zealand is hurting," the American magazine said on its website.




BusinessWeek compares Iceland with NZin the Herald