Tuesday, 28 October 2008
CARRY TRADES 101
Japanese ma an pa money traders, known colloquially as Mr and Mrs Watanabe, account for around 30% of the foreign-exchange market in Tokyo by value and volume of transactions, according to currency traders..
And for NZ the news is not good.
Thanks to the Sweeper
MARKETS ARE TANKING AGAIN
Expect more of the same here today.
Am I in the wilderness here, or are we as a nation closing our eyes, saying "dont panic" as the elephant in the room stands on our toes?
Monday, 27 October 2008
AUSSIE MARKETS IN TURMOIL - RBA - BUYS UP TO SHORE UP AUSSIE DOLLAR
We are in a much more precarious situation here in NZ.
So tomorrow will be another interesting day on our own money markets.
We understand that the Govt realises that it is going to have to step in provide a guarantee to the wholesale market - but it wont do anything until late this week so that their " financial skill and prudence" will dominate the media headlines in the last week of the election.
We need a govt that makes decisions on pragmatism not on politics.
This from the AGE
The dollar rebounded from early lows against the US dollar and yen after the RBA confirmed it intervened to shore up the currency.
In recent trading, the dollar was buying 62.22 US cents, after earlier trading near its weakest level in more than five years. Against the yen, the dollar tumbled to 55.1 yen, its lowest level since the end of World War II, before gaining in recent trade to 58.73.
The Reserve Bank confirmed this morning that it had bought Australian dollars in a bid to ensure liquidity for markets.
''What it is increasingly worrying from Australia's perspective is that the Chinese economy is also on the verge of what would be classified as a hard landing,'' said Stephen Koukoulas, Global Strategist at TD Securities.
Stocks extended their falls, touching lows not seen since late 2004, with banks the biggest drag.
Around noon, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 share index was down 55.4 points, or 1.4%, to 3814 points. .
A weaker Australian dollar has mixed consequences for Australia's economy. Exporters with products priced in US dollars, such as mining companies, will book fatter profits in local currency terms.
Importers, though, will be paying more for their products - many of which can only be sourced from overseas - and Aussies planning holidays abroad may start looking closer to home.
And any increase in prices may slow the pace of further interest rates by the Reserve Bank as its board frets over the highest inflation in more than a decade.
Risky business
The Australian dollar's rise to almost parity against the US dollar in mid-July was tied to soaring commodity prices.
Now commodities are falling through the floor and dragging the currency down with it.
"All risky assets have taken a beating in the past week as risk aversion has returned with a vengeance," said Sue Trinh of RBC Capital Markets. "It's all came to a head on Friday."
The closely watched Reuters / Jefferies CRB index slumped a further 3% on Friday, undermining commodity stocks worldwide.
The unwinding of the so-called carry trade - in which Japanese investors in particular bought Australian dollars to benefit from a much higher interest rate than what's available at home - has also pummelled the Aussie.
The Reserve Bank's announcement this morning that it had intervened in currency markets came after speculation of a coordinated intervention by major global central banks circulated on Friday.
That co-ordinated effort "for now has put in place the base but further weakness in coming days below the (60.57 US cents) levels can't be ruled out,'' Ms Trinh said.
Sunday, 26 October 2008
SO HAVE THE BANKS REALLY GOT ENOUGH MONEY TO LAST TO XMAS?
Here is the pertinent bit
But Dr Cullen said banks were not facing a crisis in the short term, giving the government time to work on details of an extended scheme.
“They will get to a point probably this side of Christmas where they will be needing to review some of their existing loan facilities; now we have plenty of time to work through what an appropriate response might be,” he said.
Dr Cullen emphasised there was no need to rush the scheme through and it was crucial that it be carefully designed to suit New Zealand’s financial sector, which is overwhelmingly owned offshore.
But today's headline in the Herald shows that the banks are at least hedging their bets and with the run on the dollar last week - which is essentially caused by the Carry trade money, the money ma and pa Asian investors have had invested here because of the high returns for depositors. Now they are not reinvesting that mloney and have taken it back home to put under their futons.
So the upshot is we have a little less money in our banks than we did.
And if you want a really really good ( even bustedblonde gets it ) article on the carry trades and their impact check this out at NYTimes here
Thanks to the Sweeper
Monday, 20 October 2008
HICKEY CALLS FOR IMMEDIATE POLITICAL ACTION ON FINANCIAL CRISIS
Hickey however says we can't wait and calls for the immediate recall of parliament and a bi partisan solution now..
We agree -
Watch Bernard here
and Hooton has a similar take here
Thursday, 16 October 2008
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS NOT OVER

The markets are up and down like a whores drawers...
Its what a lot of financial pundits predicted - volatility and lots of it..
Its going to be a roller coaster for a while yet..
Wednesday, 15 October 2008
NZ ONE OF 13 MOST " AT RISK" COUNTRIES FROM GLOBAL CREDIT CRISIS
New Zealand is among 13 nations named by BusinessWeek as most at risk from the global financial crisis.
The article compared New Zealand to Iceland because of its heavy dependence on foreign money to fund its current account deficit.
"Like Iceland, New Zealand was a favourite of investors playing the yen carry trade. And like Iceland New Zealand is hurting," the American magazine said on its website.
BusinessWeek compares Iceland with NZin the Herald