Showing posts with label kick arse economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label kick arse economics. Show all posts

Wednesday, 8 April 2009

JENNINGS LECTURE SOBERING AND THOUGHT PROVOKING.

We are pretty sure that as a baby, the cradle of Stephen Jennings. was rocked by Roger Douglas. Last night as part of the Business Round Table Ron Trotter Lecture series, the former treasury analyst, merchant banker and now Russian Oligarch, gave his views on the global economy and the the risks and opportunities. He referred constantly to emerging economic convergence

Essential conditions for convergence are a difference in the level of productivity, a difference in the annual growth rate of productivity favouring the catching up less developed countries (LDCs), and a relatively long-run time horizon.

As Jennings puts it - the further a country is behind the greater the rate of growth and the bigger the opportunities. It happens because those less developed countries now have a window to the rest of the world and look to replicate it in their own backyard. Essentially when LDC climb on the ladder of economic growth a spectacular rate of change occurs.

It happens fast and is often very untidy- witness the growing pains of Russia.
.
Companies who operate successfully in such environments are those who are nimble on the ground - not big multinationals who suffer from their own internal bureaucracies.

Jennings was both an architect and a beneficiary of just that phenomena in Russia.

We have been working with a company who understands the opportunities well and with cutting edge technology are transforming the way business in being done in the Pacific in a similar fashion.

Jennings has the ice eyes of a true pragmatist and despite the fact Europe is his home he has a deep and abiding passion for his homeland NZ.

The boy from the "Naki" has concerns for New Zealand. Our primary industry will serve us well, our lack of understanding of the sanctity of property rights is a barrier and that we need more of the unbundling of the Roger Douglas years if we are to hold onto the tail of the global tiger, he says.

Douglas Myers echoed Jennings thoughts. Interesting that the economic pragmatists have ice eyes.

As for the function, it was superbly done. As a late ring in, I ended up as the only adult on the table of the leaders of tomorrow , final year High School students from around the region. They were inspiring and animated and it was a sad thing that all I could give them was a blurry understanding of economics from my final school year plucked from the dusty recesses of my memory banks.

To the organisers - it was fantastic event but the leaders of tomorrow should have been spread around the tables of the leaders of yesterday and today. That interaction would have inspired them. Sadly I am not sure I was up to that task.

However, there was one young man at the table who will go far. Nick Cross. He has an enormous brain and a keen understanding of politics and is good looking. I first met him as a volunteer for Stephen Frank's campaign. He will be in the beehive one day or a captain of industry - of that I am sure.

Tuesday, 7 April 2009

STEPHEN JENNINGS

Tonight we are off to the Business Round Table gig where we are listening to Stephen Jennings as part of the Sir Ronald Trotter Lecture series.

Jennings started the Renaissance Group in Russia which is still regarded as one of the strongest financial institutions in Eastern Europe. He is a Kiwi.

He has some strong views on what it will take to make New Zealand and indeed the worlds financial markets hum again.

We have written a few blogs on him and they are still some of the most searched posts we have written.

He preaches what we call kick arse economics

Should be a great night.

Wednesday, 1 April 2009

BAGS ARE GOOD FOR YOU.

Apparently there is a whole other side to the plastic bag argument. We like it when economists get stuck into issues and one economist whose common sense and irreverence we have always admired is Brent Wheeler.

Anyway has a lovely take on plastic bags.
Feel free to recycle at your leisure.

Wednesday, 11 February 2009

STIMULUS PACKAGE

Keys stimulus package is a good start - all good projects with lots of spin off benefits. Hosking will be pleased

HOSKING CALLS FOR FINESSE


And rightly so. Rob Hosking of the NBR , one of the smarter financial and economic journalists around the traps always offers a wise and considered opinion on the meaty issues. His article today on the Stimulus package is on the button. We dont need flashy - or we will get lots of inflation and that will put us into the death spiral we think that the US is headed for. We need smart thinking. Now girls know all about stimulus - its something that needs to be done with finesse and something that should not be done in a hurry.

Wednesday, 4 February 2009

Wednesday, 14 January 2009

TOMORROWS POLITICAL DECISIONS CRUCIAL FOR FUTURE OF NZ

Fran O'Sullivan yet again gives a column that sets out succinctly what the big issues are for the Key govt.

Tomorrow is a day for some bold creative thinking and a clear indication that we have visionary leadership in Key. We like the phrase "rolling maul" Key has used to describe his Jobs Summit - it sounds bold, and ballsy and that's what we need. We need a plan and it needs to be clearly articulated to the public so using the rugby analogy will help it connect with the public.

Fran talks about some suggestions from Mark Weldon around provisional tax. Provisional tax is a bitch. It's a nightmare for small businesses with rollercoaster cash flows. Key should sort it and quick. We will be forever greatful and it will lessen the reliance on Gaviscon at certain times of the year.

We also want to see more accountability from the fat and lazy SOE's. No more using monopolistic units to fund risky commercial forays. Forays that often mean that SOE's bugger up commercial opportunities for companies that don't have access to "free money." It's time someone in the business press did an up close and personal analysis of the financial performance of the SOE's - some of balance sheets do not make for pretty reading.

And the boards should be stripped of the Labour lackeys and replaced with some more commercially minded successful and visionary businessmen and women, quick smart.

There is much the new Key team can do - We want to see some inspired ideas, we want to see courage and we want to see the bold leadership we voted for.

Kia Kaha John, Kia Kaha.

Sunday, 11 January 2009

KICK ARSE ECONOMICS ON THE AGENDA AGAIN

Much to our surprise one of the most popular and often searched stories is this one about Stephen Jennings 0f the Renaissance Group that we blogged about early in the formative days of Roarprawn. We are delighted to inform readers that he is coming to NZ in a couple of months to talk to the Business Round Table.We look forward to hearing what he has to say about the Global situation.

No a bad looking bugger either.

Thursday, 8 January 2009

THE ECONOMIC TSUNAMI IS BUILDING

We are off to lunch at Shed 5 today . It is hard to grasp that our world is going to be impacted by the growing global economic crisis when its sunny, most people you know still have jobs and you have money in the bank, but the story in the Herald today clearly shows the impact the recession is having on export earnings and the news is real bad. Its the biggest drop in 20 years. We reckoned it will be June before the first cold chill of the Tsunami really hits our fair shores. We hope that everyone is getting ready - it aint gonna be pretty.

Thursday, 16 October 2008

GLOBAL ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES


Just as we predicted - the markets are still up and down .
Its not over by a long shot see Stuffs latest report

Wednesday, 8 October 2008

NATIONAL REVEALS STRATEGIC ECONOMIC THINKING

National didnt just unveil tax cuts its unveiled a strategy for massaging the economy and improving the lot of middle New Zealand

National Party Leader John Key says the challenges facing the New Zealand economy require a focus on disciplined government spending and a plan for future growth.

"After a decade of the most favourable global economic conditions in our lifetimes, all New Zealand has to show for it is an ocean of red ink 10 years into the future. This is a loud wake-up call.
"The suddenness and severity of the international downturn has exposed our economy's weaknesses more quickly than anyone would have expected. But those weaknesses have been present for some time, and they must be addressed now.
"The surest way out of the red ink is for the New Zealand economy to grow faster. I am absolutely committed to ensuring that happens, and today I am announcing tax and fiscal policies which demonstrate my intent.
"New Zealand's economic recovery must be built on improved productivity and a better environment for investment in jobs and growth. To ensure this happens, New Zealand needs a government with a strong economic management plan.
"Our economic management plan will provide the needed fiscal stimulus while strengthening New Zealand's position in the longer term by boosting economic growth."
National's plan has five essential components: 1. Improving productivity across the public sector by ensuring a strong focus on the provision of frontline services. 2. Stopping the massive rise in head office bureaucracy that Labour has encouraged, and we will deal with the regulatory and compliance issues that smother Kiwi businesses. 3. A programme of ongoing tax reduction. We will pass these tax changes into law before Christmas. 4. A step-up in infrastructural investment in vital national assets like roads and an ultra-fast broadband network. 5. An unwavering focus on lifting education standards. New Zealand simply can't afford to tolerate the long tail of underachievement in our schools.
"I have always believed that given the opportunity to choose a path to a more successful, enterprising, and prosperous nation, New Zealanders would sign up to policies that would bring a brighter future. But with the current world economic situation, the choices have become starker.

"The Treasury forecasts released earlier this week paint a very bleak picture of the future, for a long way ahead, if we remain on our current course, if we keep our current policies, if we keep our current government.
"My colleagues and I are offering a very different way forward. It involves some clear choices. It requires us, as a nation, to be prepared to back ourselves. That is what the package that I have put before you today is about."

Go John!

Tuesday, 7 October 2008

JOHN KEY'S TAX BLUEPRINT

Here is the press release from the Key


We have been monitoring the build-up in problems in the financial markets over the past several months, and particularly in recent weeks, and the scale of intervention by other governments.

I received a briefing from the Reserve Bank on Sunday.

I am satisfied that its current plans are sufficient at this stage to maintain confidence in the New Zealand financial system over the coming months.


good to see that key has some faith in Bollard

Should it become necessary, however, my colleagues and I are committed to working with the Reserve Bank to ensure financial stability.


Excellent - work with not tell what to do - a major departure from the Labour NZ First Axis.

National is further concerned by the projections outlined in yesterday's opening of the government books, and the current outlook for New Zealand's long-term growth prospects.

Yesterday was final proof that New Zealand can't afford another decade of Labour's loose economic management.


What Labour has done is shameful and deceitful

If New Zealand is to avoid the Treasury's projected decade of deficits we simply must focus our attention on growing the economy.

Only a strong economy will guarantee financial security for families, well paid jobs in New Zealand for our young people, and larger superannuation payments for our older people.


Good that's what we need strong talk - decisive leadership

Turning the economy around will not be easy.

In the past nine years economic growth has been fed by easily available credit.

Those days are over.


yes Labour has not spent on policies that achieve growth or indeed given our nation any security.

In today's changed world, New Zealand's economic recovery must be built on stronger fundamentals.

It must be built on improved productivity and a better environment for investment in jobs and growth.

To ensure this happens, New Zealand needs a Government with a strong economic management plan.

That is what National will provide.


Excellent. that's what we need.

Our economic management plan will provide the immediate economic stimulus needed to see us through this storm, while strengthening New Zealand's position in the longer term by boosting economic growth.

It has five essential components:

1) Bringing some real discipline to government spending and ensuring a strong focus on the provision of frontline services. 2) Stopping the massive and costly rise in overall government bureaucracy and cutting red tape.


the prawns are ready and waiting - they are a small but elite force peppered among various government departments who have had enough of the indulgent spending on policy puffery.

I will have much more to say about both of these points in the coming days.

3) Ongoing tax reduction 4) A step-up in infrastructure investment to increase our capacity to grow. 5) A renewed focus on lifting education standards.

Today I am confirming our commitment to get behind Kiwi workers with a programme of personal tax reduction beginning in April next year.

In light of recent events that commitment is more important than it was previously.

We have made some changes to our tax package in light of the news Michael Cullen dished up in yesterday's pre-election fiscal update (PREFU).

The thrust has not changed.

Good but we think that this is time for bold thinking - seriously guys we cant be less prepared to weather the buffeting we are will get by the global financial gale that's about to hit.

But we are being realistic about what is fair and affordable in light of the mess Labour will be leaving behind it.

National will deliver a responsible growth-enhancing programme of ongoing tax reduction that does not put more pressure on the government's finances.

good.

Following on from the Labour tax cuts of 1 October 2008, National will be making further tax reductions on 1 April 2009, 1 April 2010 and 1 April 2011.

The largest chunk of this tax reduction will be provided on 1 April next year.

For someone on the average wage, the actual amount of the tax cuts will be similar to that which we have previously signalled, and I will detail those numbers tomorrow.

Our tax package will demonstrate my determination to ensure vulnerable New Zealanders are protected from the sharp edge of a recession.


excellent - Key stays staunch but has a package that will help the vulnerable

It will require no borrowing over and above the requirements laid out in the PREFU.

And it will be paid for by a few clear policy choices we have made and which I will outline tomorrow.

Good its time for some rationalisation.

In the immediate future, this programme of tax reduction will ensure there is more cash in the economy and it will give New Zealanders more breathing space in these harder economic times.

But, let me be clear - our tax programme is not just a one-off response to a short-term problem.

Most importantly, this programme will be part of National's plan to move New Zealand out of the recession more quickly and to strengthen our growth prospects.

Excellent stuff - a real economic strategy

It will improve incentives in the New Zealand economy and it will help stem the flow of skilled workers to Australia and elsewhere.


Good, that will help spur our best and brightest to return .

The importance of these fundamentals should not be underestimated.

What New Zealanders need to know today is that there is a brighter future available in this country and that there is a political party that is prepared to act to make sure that future is realised.

This is not just what we want its what we need

While the world economic situation remains fluid, I am confident that with the right policy settings New Zealand will be able to weather the storm, move out of this recession more quickly, and grow more strongly - to the benefit of all New Zealanders and their families.


Good stuff John we look forward to seeing the details

Monday, 6 October 2008

HI MUM,

Well , today has been one of those days.

We have found out that the Labour government of the last few years has been spending money on a whole heap of stuff that can be best described as fatuous crap. Lots of rules and regulations to keep everyone busy being busy but not a lot that was productive.

Companies struggled to grow because they were tied up tight with red tape and had to pay lots of really silly taxes that go to paying more people to make up more silly ideas that do nothing for anyone except grow fatter arses in the bureaucracy.

While things looked good the truth is there isn't a lot of money left and the money that has been spent has done bugger all to strengthen our economy.

That's going to mean that times are going to get tough really fast.

Shame really, because if Labour had not made the companies pay so much tax they would have had more money to be innovative, pay more people and grow.

Commerce is what builds our economy.

What we need to do is cut the taxes and let companies grow the economy and stop Labour from growing the bureaucracy and spending it on crap.

So its time to hunker down, get out your gun and get the old man to shoot some rabbits and fill the deep freeze and grow more veges. Because it aint going to be easy for quite a while.

And vote National.

Your loving offspring.

BOLD, INNOVATIVE FISCAL POLICY NEEDED FROM NATIONAL

This is no time for Key to let his balls hide behind his kidneys. Its time for smart, sharp , innovative economic thinking.

Kick Arse Economics.

Fortune favours the brave.

Hooton has a good analysis

Which is odd really , because we in the VRWC all thought he was a closet pinko.

Jokes aside - we need a really good plan.

John Key needs to deliver - not just for National but for the Nation.

A BIO WORTH READING - ALEX SUNDAKOV

BB bumped into Alex on Friday and enjoyed a pleasant hour with this affable man with an exceptional intellect.
Anyway it seems that Unlimited caught up with Alex recently - the interview is well worth a read here .
I would be surprised if Alex doesn't have some sound advice for John Key and Clark about whats needed to help NZ counter the Global Financial crisis..

Sunday, 21 September 2008

Stephen Jennings - Kick Arse Economics - A new business hero?

Here' s hoping that the words of wisdom from this guy are heeded by all our politicians..



His comments about entrepreneurial activity obviously fit well with National and Act Party but more importantly Maori party values.



Jennings says New Zealand's Polynesian explorers had the values needed for the modern economic world - adventure, exploring, risk, pushing into the unknown - and that heritage is still there."I believe if you scrape a few layers of the top, and, to be colloquial, with a little bit of boot in the bum, we can reinvigorate those values."


Roarprawn also predicts that Labour will try and demonise this uber entrepreneur when, instead they should be letting kids listen to his inspiring story.




Heres some of the interesting bits from the Herald Article





The Bolshevik Biscuit Factory seems an unlikely place to start the story of a Taranaki boy who became a billionaire.
But Stephen Jennings kick-started his way to wealth at the Moscow plant.
It was 1992 and Russia had just opened its doors to the world after 70 years of communism.
Jennings, then 32 and working for consultants Credit Suisse First Boston, went to Russia for a six-week job: to privatise Russia's first-ever company.
There were no street lights, no neon signs, just one or two restaurants.

"It felt," says Jennings, "like we were driving into a very dark place."




For the free-market economist and former New Zealand Treasury official, the disintegrating Soviet Union had shadows everywhere.
Communism had collapsed, and while Jennings was there to help get capitalism in place - "people literally didn't know what private ownership meant".
Jennings and his colleagues needed to find, then persuade, a guinea-pig enterprise to sell, not easy when entrepreneurship had long been viewed as a crime.








The company Jennings founded, Renaissance Group, is a major player in Russian finance.
It has Russia's top brokerage, investments including the Ukraine's biggest land-holding and Russia's biggest forest estate, and a consumer finance arm with 12,000 employees that provides credit cards and personal loans.





Jennings is now on to his next challenge: Africa.
Some believe Jennings could be New Zealand's richest man. Last month, Forbes magazine put his stake in Renaissance Group at $5.2 billion, much higher than previous estimates of his wealth at $1.6 billion.


He's a big name in the international business press.




Despite this, Jennings is still relatively unknown here in New Zealand.




He can even walk anonymously along Oakura beach, 12 kilometres southwest of New Plymouth.
That's about to change. Jennings, 48, believes New Zealand is "squandering" its potential.




It is predictably and unashamedly free-market, but he doesn't just believe it - he's done it.



This week's economic meltdown will affect Renaissance Group, says Jennings, with "global contagion" of the worst crisis since the 1929 depression likely to affect all the world's markets.



The financier had to beat Lehman Brothers and other international heavyweights to dominate investment banking in Russia. This week, Lehman, a 158-year-old firm collapsed, the biggest bankruptcy in United States history.




This reflects Jennings' theme about New Zealand: that the world is changing quickly, the emerging economies are on the rise, and the old guard of the Western economies and multinationals simply aren't nimble enough to go with it.




Jennings started his first job in 1984 at Treasury: a boiler-room of free-market economics.
"I believed in a lot of the myths and sacred cows about New Zealand and the New Zealand economy," he says. "Being told that agriculture shouldn't be subsidised and should stand on its own two feet was a pretty radical idea."




He credits secretary Graham Scott, and senior officials Roger Kerr (now executive director of the Business Roundtable), Bryce Wilkinson (economist) and Rob Cameron (investment banker) for teaching him "common sense".




He hit the free-market highway, working on "Telecom's deregulation, health reform, ports, airports, environmental resource management, deregulation, corporatisation, privatisation" in New Zealand and Australia.




He worked on electricity reform with American economist Vernon Smith - now a Nobel Prize winner for economics.
"Without being melodramatic, I saw it as making a difference," he says.




If so, going to Russia in 1992 would have been like doing God's work for Jennings.


He says the Bolshevik Biscuit Factory was the pilot for 5000 more privatised companies in the next three years - more than had been done in the rest of the world in total.



"You had to be a little bit crazy and have a medium-to-long-term view."


Jennings says Renaissance stayed clear of corruption, yet was also able to be accepted into the Russian circle. .

"Just as Russia went through growing pains, so did Renaissance, nearly going under in 1998 when the economy collapsed and the Government defaulted on its debt repayments.
Jennings stayed on when others didn't. He's keep out of politics as much as possible, but kept connected people close to him.
He says the free market wasn't just good for him, it was good for Russia.


"As assets found their way into stronger hands, as private ownership caught on, then the people who owned these assets wanted the institutions and mechanisms to make these effective."
"All [Western commentators] can see is the historical issues and the existing problems rather than the trajectory they are on."


Jennings is Renaissance Group's chairman, chief executive and the main stakeholder as it expands to Africa.



His line is that if Russia was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, then Africa is a second-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
Renaissance has ploughed more than half a billion dollars into everything from real estate to banking, and plans to quadruple this investment.



Zimbabwe looks good in Jennings' "medium-to-long-term view". It has resources, a good education system, "the best management in Africa, is in a high growth region, with a seven million-strong diaspora that will come back if things go well."




Jennings sees an economic reordering of the world coming - a "convergence".




"The poor and middle-class countries are going through a massive amount of growth, their incomes are catching with the relatively small number of people who live in the so-called rich part. In the next 20 years, two billion people will join the middle class."




He fears New Zealand could be left behind in this.

That's why he's speaking out to the media now, and at the Business Roundtable's annual Sir Ronald Trotter lecture next month.




New Zealand, he believes, needs to become more open, with a more entrepreneurial culture and approach to life. It needs to embrace the opportunities in emerging economies, like he has. It needs to look at the way they are non-ideological and "wide-awake".


Jennings says New Zealanders tend to keep their thoughts to themselves.


So what is he thinking?


He sees New Zealand as dominated by "powerful interest groups". Asked to elaborate, he says, "the health area, environmental issues, the size of Government" and the way they are "sacred cows". One gets the feeling of unfinished business.




Where would he start? "We've had a lot of government involvement in many aspects of our lives. We have a very comprehensive and very generous and in my view, excessive, welfare system. That is an obvious place to start."


Jennings says too much government involvement entrenches "really dangerous values" and that "the mainstream" New Zealander would agree with him.

Jennings, the man who sees what others can't. So what for New Zealand?




"If we don't change, the future is quite predictable. It is really more of the same: a continued downward slide in our relative income standards relative to the rest of the world and every other indicator going with that: social indicators, health indicators, cultural indicators, sporting indicators."
Jennings says New Zealand's Polynesian explorers had the values needed for the modern economic world - adventure, exploring, risk, pushing into the unknown - and that heritage is still there.
"I believe if you scrape a few layers of the top, and, to be colloquial, with a little bit of boot in the bum, we can reinvigorate those values."






THE RUSSIAN CONNECTION
Taranaki boy Stephen Armstrong Jennings is a typical son of Taranaki. Born in Waitara's old maternity hospital, the farmer's boy spent his early years in Awakino, north Taranaki, then moved to Oakura, a beach village 12 km southwest of New Plymouth. He went to Spotswood College.
Bright spark The tall (2m) rugby-lover studied business at Massey University and economics at Auckland where he graduated with first class honours. He went to work at Treasury, then Jarden Consulting, which became Credit First Suisse Boston, which sent him to Russia.
Family His wife, Tina Podplatnik, is at Oxford, turning her doctorate on the "rise of state corporatism in Russia" into a book. She has a collection of Russian art, and set up the Sotheby's auction house in Moscow. They have four children, aged 6 to 15.
Downtime Jennings says he usually gets back to New Zealand twice a year. He likes to surf a bit when he can. He has a $1.5 million home on Oakura's beachfront Messenger Tce, and a share in a bach at Awaroa inlet in the Abel Tasman National Park. He also has shares in a company here with Bill Trotter (son of Sir Ronald) who was the subject of a foiled kidnap plot in 2002. Jennings donated $20,000 to Don Brash before the 2005 election but says he does not know any current New Zealand political leaders, including John Key, and did not believe he should have too close a relationship.
Connections Jennings' plays it down, but Renaissance Group needs international political contacts and Vladimir Putin, Colin Powell and Tony Blair are among them.
He's known to party hard: Renaissance Group once hired a 18th century palace and flew the United States waterski team in entertain guests with stunts on its lake.
He likes to keep his New Zealand links, and has had Moana and the Tribe to Moscow to teach the haka. London-based former All Black captain Sean Fitzpatrick works three days a week for Renaissance Capital.


"Without being melodramatic, I saw it as making a difference," he says.
If so, going to Russia in 1992 would have been like doing God's work for Jennings.
He says the Bolshevik Biscuit Factory was the pilot for 5000 more privatised companies in the next three years - more than had been done in the rest of the world in total.
"There was a huge amount of dislocation, there was a huge amount of corruption, there was a huge amount of asset-stripping," Jennings says.
"You had to be a little bit crazy and have a medium-to-long-term view."
This view saw Jennings and a colleague break away from Credit Suisse First Boston to set up Renaissance Capital as an investment bank in 1995.
Russia was effectively a fire sale. Oligarchs like Roman Abramovich made a killing by buying the up the country's assets. Jennings knew them - they were his clients. Many are now either in jail or exile.
Jennings says Renaissance stayed clear of corruption, yet was also able to be accepted into the Russian circle. He somehow managed to play the perfect double game. "If you wanted to get into the oil industry or gas, or if you wanted to get involved in big state privatisations as a buyer, or if you wanted to buy big steel mills, then you are had to deal with corruption-type issues.
"But if you wanted to start an industry based on pure market transactions, you didn't face those same issues."
Just as Russia went through growing pains, so did Renaissance, nearly going under in 1998 when the economy collapsed and the Government defaulted on its debt repayments.
Jennings stayed on when others didn't. He's keep out of politics as much as possible, but kept connected people close to him.
He says the free market wasn't just good for him, it was good for Russia.
"As assets found their way into stronger hands, as private ownership caught on, then the people who owned these assets wanted the institutions and mechanisms to make these effective."
Jennings says Russia is easy to bag.
He is defensive about it, once criticising British Prime Minister Tony Blair for making a "rash statement" that investors would turn away from Russia because of concerns over democratic principles.
"All [Western commentators] can see is the historical issues and the existing problems rather than the trajectory they are on."
Jennings is Renaissance Group's chairman, chief executive and the main stakeholder as it expands to Africa.
His line is that if Russia was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, then Africa is a second-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
Renaissance has ploughed more than half a billion dollars into everything from real estate to banking, and plans to quadruple this investment.
He has just been in Ghana, Kenya and Zimbabwe, a day before the power-sharing agreement between President Robert Mugabe and his rival, Morgan Tsvangirai.
Zimbabwe looks good in Jennings' "medium-to-long-term view". It has resources, a good education system, "the best management in Africa, is in a high growth region, with a seven million-strong diaspora that will come back if things go well."
Jennings sees an economic reordering of the world coming - a "convergence".
"The poor and middle-class countries are going through a massive amount of growth, their incomes are catching with the relatively small number of people who live in the so-called rich part. In the next 20 years, two billion people will join the middle class."
He fears New Zealand could be left behind in this. That's why he's speaking out to the media now, and at the Business Roundtable's annual Sir Ronald Trotter lecture next month.
New Zealand, he believes, needs to become more open, with a more entrepreneurial culture and approach to life. It needs to embrace the opportunities in emerging economies, like he has. It needs to look at the way they are non-ideological and "wide-awake".
Jennings says New Zealanders tend to keep their thoughts to themselves.
So what is he thinking?
He sees New Zealand as dominated by "powerful interest groups". Asked to elaborate, he says, "the health area, environmental issues, the size of Government" and the way they are "sacred cows". One gets the feeling of unfinished business.
Where would he start? "We've had a lot of government involvement in many aspects of our lives. We have a very comprehensive and very generous and in my view, excessive, welfare system. That is an obvious place to start."
Jennings says too much government involvement entrenches "really dangerous values" and that "the mainstream" New Zealander would agree with him.
Won't many just see him as a Rogernome who became a billionaire pillaging his way around economies that didn't know better?
Jennings dismisses that as New Zealand's "labelling process".
"I'm not going to let anyone label me. What do they mean by Rogernomics? None of those policies have been unwound. Do they want to go back to a 66 per cent tax rate?"
Jennings, the man who sees what others can't. So what for New Zealand?
"If we don't change, the future is quite predictable. It is really more of the same: a continued downward slide in our relative income standards relative to the rest of the world and every other indicator going with that: social indicators, health indicators, cultural indicators, sporting indicators."
Jennings says New Zealand's Polynesian explorers had the values needed for the modern economic world - adventure, exploring, risk, pushing into the unknown - and that heritage is still there.
"I believe if you scrape a few layers of the top, and, to be colloquial, with a little bit of boot in the bum, we can reinvigorate those values."
THE RUSSIAN CONNECTION
Taranaki boy Stephen Armstrong Jennings is a typical son of Taranaki. Born in Waitara's old maternity hospital, the farmer's boy spent his early years in Awakino, north Taranaki, then moved to Oakura, a beach village 12 km southwest of New Plymouth. He went to Spotswood College.
Bright spark The tall (2m) rugby-lover studied business at Massey University and economics at Auckland where he graduated with first class honours. He went to work at Treasury, then Jarden Consulting, which became Credit First Suisse Boston, which sent him to Russia.
Family His wife, Tina Podplatnik, is at Oxford, turning her doctorate on the "rise of state corporatism in Russia" into a book. She has a collection of Russian art, and set up the Sotheby's auction house in Moscow. They have four children, aged 6 to 15.
Downtime Jennings says he usually gets back to New Zealand twice a year. He likes to surf a bit when he can. He has a $1.5 million home on Oakura's beachfront Messenger Tce, and a share in a bach at Awaroa inlet in the Abel Tasman National Park. He also has shares in a company here with Bill Trotter (son of Sir Ronald) who was the subject of a foiled kidnap plot in 2002. Jennings donated $20,000 to Don Brash before the 2005 election but says he does not know any current New Zealand political leaders, including John Key, and did not believe he should have too close a relationship.
Connections Jennings' plays it down, but Renaissance Group needs international political contacts and Vladimir Putin, Colin Powell and Tony Blair are among them.
He's known to party hard: Renaissance Group once hired a 18th century palace and flew the United States waterski team in entertain guests with stunts on its lake.
He likes to keep his New Zealand links, and has had Moana and the Tribe to Moscow to teach the haka. London-based former All Black captain Sean Fitzpatrick works three days a week for Renaissance Capital.