LOST BOYS TO GET SKIN IN THE GAME

Its been a bitterly cold day in Christchurch with none of the glamour of being wrapped in a snow blanket. But the cockles of our heart have been warmed by Nationals announcement around welfare reforms that target that tough group of youngsters - the 16 -18 yrd olds. There are nearly 15,000 of them.

The are the Do Nothings. No work, no training. No education. and sadly this group are also responsible for bringing far too many children into a world where the only income comes from intergenerational state welfare dependence.

This cohort find the lure of easy living on the benefit a demotivator to getting of their arses and getting into the workforce. Once they get on the benefit it is terrifyingly difficult to get them off. They are the nations lost boys. Destined to live life in the shadows of our bright society.

Matthew Hooton put it succinctly on Q andA this morning when he said that increasing welfare spending over the last decade has not improved the the outcomes for those who get state handouts. Its the welfare handouts to these young adults over the last decade and beyond which has led to this national tragedy.

So National, has decided to get tough. What they are doing by putting the responsibility for these kids back on the families, should be a game changer for our society. Maori will be able to give wrap around whanau ora support to these boys and in many cases girls who are currently eking out an existence in the shadows.

Its a very interventionist approach and that is what is need for this incredibly vulnerable group.

Their families will get the message that its not acceptable to let their kids slip into welfares tight embrace and its their responsibility to see that they dont. And the kids will get the message that this lifestyle is no longer acceptable. And the community will have a chance to get involved and help steer them to a better life and make good choices about their futures. Agencies will be able to share information to ensure they are not slipping though the net and monitor their progress.

So congratulations to National for tackling the tough and arguably the most important welfare reforms first. It sends a strong message to the electorate - that National cares enough about the future of everyone in New Zealand to make some unpalatable decisions that the left have never had the balls to make.

Its a well worn Chinese proverb that says it takes a whole village to bring up a child. This policy will see our village supported to give every child the best guidance to get them to a place where they can make the right choices that will give them a real stake in our country's future.

Update>

And Cactus reckons that Labour still cant see the wood for the trees..

KELVIN DAVIS ENDORSED BY HONE

Our Hone - not the whingy whiny Hone - Hone Key.

John Key reckons that Kelvin Davis will win Te Tai Tokerau. And he will. We have no doubt that National will have been polling the crap out of the electorate and already know what way the cards will fall.

And we think that the Maori Party deliberately put up Solomon Tipene so that the focus would be on a two horse race.
We also expect in the final few days that Solomon will concede and tell his supporters to put their votes firmly in behind Davis.

Dover Samuels also makes a good suggestion and one that has in some part been actioned - and that is that the National party Maori supporters should be asked to vote Kelvin. Keys proclaimation on the likely outcome of Te Tai Tokerau goes part way to addressing that and Dover also underestimates something else - right leaning voters are smart - they will vote strategically as a matter of course.

And why do we think that Northern voters should vote Kelvin Davis? We he is simply the most exciting Maori MP Labour has in its ranks for decades. He is Ministerial material.

New Zealand washed away the political stain that was Winston Peters at the last election - We are confident that Maori in the Far North will see that by supporting Kelvin Davis they will have a better future - With Hone all they will get is a reminder of a bitter past.

NOW IS THE TIME - ACT

After we posted on the woeful Hillary Calvert last night - the phone started to go off.

It appears that deep within in ACT there is a realisation of an urgent need to revitalise the Party list.

Hillary Calvert is likely to disappear as it has already be decided she is too much of a liability. And it seems, that Heather Roy is likely to be asked to consider stepping aside for someone with more intellectual grunt and political nouse.

So the big news is Cactus Kate has been asked to become an ACT candidate.. And despite her being particularly hard to pin down as she swans around the world she did concede she would rule nothing out. In fact her first words when we asked her if it was true was

" How did you know wench?"

We just told her that our deep throat was bigger than her deep throat.

We would have to admit that her grey matter was awash in bubbles at the time and apparently she was smack dab in the middle of some Pacific Hunkfest which would account for the lack of sophistication of her answer to our political probe.

We also know that she has been considering, due to her advancing years and growing bank balance, that she needs to put down roots - not dud roots - real roots. Like buy a house or at least an apartment.

She has only just left New Zealand on a very low key visit but we know that she spent an awful lot of quality time with some key ACT decision makers and is due back again soon

So we hope that ACT pushes her hard to accept- she will increase the current intellectual depth of the party 10 fold.

If she gets to be an MP then we reckon you will see packed houses for question time.

And she will scare the bejeesus out of Key.

THE GAMBLER

There are bits of the budget we don't like but understand and agree with like the reductions of govt contributions to kiwi saver which puts the onus back on the individual to take more personal responsibility for their future.

We like the continual pressure to find efficiencies in the public service sector. From within its great to see how this pressure has meant that departments have developed better approaches to service delivery. In plain English, they are just a whole lot better at doing more for less. But still more can be done.

But we reckon that the big flaw in the budget is that it is a plan for the best and hope like frikking hell the worst doesnt happen. Whereas we have always believed in the business planning maxim of plan for the worst - hope for the best.

The only people who ever consistently base their future on the "plan for the best" approach are gamblers.

So while we think that the budget offers up some good bits, it doesnt do enough hard enough and fast enough for us. Leaving most of the changes to the next year and using the election as a mandating approach is fraught and again a gamble.

So to our PM - heres our song for you - courtesy of our favourite country crooner - Kenny Rogers - The Gambler. F**k we hope ya got it right mate - otherwise we will be joining the PIGS at the trough of economic despair.

WHAT WE WANT IN THE BUDGET

1. A clearly articulated economic vision for the future
2. Clear rationale for public service cuts and reorganisation
3. Some economic goals we can all understand and relate to.
4. Some bold and innovative thinking re R and D.
5. An initiative that fosters productivity
6. A clearing of the decks of all " nice to haves" so we can concentrate on the "must haves"
7. Some initiatives that show this government has steel balls.

WHO LET THE DOG OUT?

Mallard show stopping mongrel dog impressions are funny. They are so off key, ( pardon the pun) wide of the mark and puerile that they are just plain loony tunes..

If thats the biggest set of nashers Labour's got then they need help. Key must feel he is being gummed by a 60 yr old dirty girl.

PIRATES ON THE HIGH SEAS

The PM has given Greenpeace an overdue serve over their antics on the high seas as Petrobas, the Brazilian Mineral exploration company, has a squizz off the North East coast to see what lies beneath.

Greenpeace are claiming to be worried that Petrobras's exploration could lead to the same issue as BP faced off America.

Actually Greenpeace has worked out that this is a high profile issue and they can sell it worldwide as "big government that doesn't care up against poor natives who worry about their land."

It is such a compelling picture to those who will only get half the story.

Big Govt vs Brown people - it will have hearts bleeding around the planet. Its a media wet dream.

Sadly Te Whanau Apanui cant see that Greenpeace is exploiting them as the poster children for what will build into a world wide campaign. They are just pawns in the Greenpeace money making machine.

Truth is that Te Whanau Apanui have no more rights to the area Petrabas is mining as do Stewart Island Maori or a pakeha in Parnell.

We grew up with the Penrod Drilling rigs in our back yard in the 70's. They moored in Paterson inlet. No environmental damage at all.

There were jobs a plenty and Southlanders to this day are still waiting for the time when the technology catches up with the oil reserves buried deep on the Southern Ocean floor.

We have a personal stake in islands and land dotted around Stewart Island. Rakiura is still the place of our heart. But we would welcome oil exploration off Rakiura in fact we are on the record saying that we need to know what is actually on Stewart Island as well.

Thing is Greenpeace is in the mining game. - Mining the hysterical and the tree lovers emotions to see if they can come up with enough guilt that they can turn into gilt.

Greeenpeace is fully of people who like swanning around on the sea on daring do holidays paid for by poor mis-informed people who thing all big companies and governments are bad.

John Key has signalled he is going to send in the Navy to ensure that Petrobas can go about their business. The Government is in a catch 22 situation. If it does nothing - it risks losing a real opportunity to map the potential resource in the area.

If it does send in the navy it risks the issue going global.

Greenpeace will be laughing all the way to the bank.

What is needed is greater education around just what Petrobas is actually doing.

Our economic future is as insecure as it has probably ever been in our history. We need to know what resources we have. We need to weigh up the opportunities and the risks rationally.We cannot afford to close our eyes to any economic possibilities.

Greenpeace's doe eyed warriors are out on the streets again, wanting people to sign up to their cause. A cause that keeps many people on a permanent holiday. They do not add to economic growth and quite frankly it is very difficult to see just how much of the planet they actually "save."

So no doubt the haters and the wreckers will pepper this blog with crap about how we have never saved a bloody thing. - wrong. Our name is on the Head of Agreement for Rakiura Maori Land that ensured that 3000 ha of Stewart Island was never milled.

We were also instrumental along with many of our kith and kin, to ensure that the ecology of the muttonbird islands are protected for ever.

We have a very strong conservation ethic and have applied it in a practical way.

We have saved lots of shit and we are proud of it.

Greenpeace has little to show for its efforts apart from a lot of noise, considerable media coverage and a shitload of money in the bank. $60 million NZ in fact.

What has it saved in NZ? What has been its impact on the ecology of New Zealand?

The truth is two tenths of feck all.

We are proud to be served by a government that wants to ensure a money making outfit cloaked in faux environmental outrage does not prevent another outfit who are going about their lawful business.

If I was young and carefree, I would love the life of a modern day Greenpeace pirate - the ships are state of the art, you get to be the "good guy" - You get to be housed with a whole heap of other " passionate people" who will share your ideals. You are continually stroked by the Greenpeace mind machine so you feel like a hero. And your board and keep is all paid for and you dont have to worry about shaving your armpits or putting on lippy.

They only down side is you might have to eat a shit load of bean sprouts.

As for the Government response? Go hard. We cannot and should not ever allow activists and indeed terrorists stop people from going about their lawful business.

THE KEY TO JOHN

A great funny video with the PM a the Napier Art Deco weekend - it will be legend. We love the bits about not knowing what he is signing.

Apparently unscripted..Unlike Clark who could only find a job in the backroom of the largest corrupt organisation in the world, Key would do well on the stand up circuit.

TO THE FUTURE

So lets look at what's happening in Christchurch rationally.

The PM 's right, about 10,000 houses are poked.

There are places that will not be good places to site leafy suburbs again.

There are buildings you would not want to rebuild again - even though they were symbols of good Christian ethics. They were only ever built in brick to appease the self agrandisement of the religious leaders of the past.

There is an infrastructure that needs to be rebuilt.

Some people will never return and smaller towns will gobble up those who are going in an effort to grow their centres.

But Christchurch like Darwin will be rebuilt. It may mean people stay away for a long time. But its a fantastic location and people will want to return.

So in the wake of the quake - can the future be certain?

Yes, is the simple answer and there is no better example than Darwin. A town not just brought to its knees but completely wiped out -

Of nearly 50,000 people, only 10,000 were allowed to stay.

Darwin was rebuilt. It changed lives. The city was a new city.

Many of those who had lived there never went back - but new people did - people who saw different opportunities and had not experienced the ferocious Cyclone. The same will happen in Christchurch.

Reconstruction and effects on Darwin

In February 1975, Prime Minister Gough Whitlam announced the creation of the Darwin Reconstruction Commission, which was given the task of rebuilding the city "within five years". The Commission was headed by Tony Powell.^[16] The damage to the city was so severe that some advocated moving the entire city. However, the government insisted that it be rebuilt in the same location. By May 1975, Darwin's population had recovered somewhat, with 30,000 residing in the city. Temporary housing, caravans, hotels and an ocean liner MV Patris, were used to house people, as reconstruction of permanent housing had not yet begun by September that year.

However, by the following April, and after receiving criticism for the slow speed of reconstruction, the Commission had built 3,000 new homes in the nearly destroyed northern suburbs, and completed repairs to those that had survived the storm. Several new building codes were drawn up, trying to achieve the competing goals of the speedy recovery of the area and ensuring that there would be no repeat of the damage that Darwin took in 1974. By 1978, much of the city had recovered and was able to house almost the same number of people as it had before the cyclone hit. However, as many as sixty percent of Darwin's 1974 population were no longer living in the city in the 1980s. In the years that followed, Darwin was almost entirely rebuilt and now shows almost no resemblance to the Darwin of December 1974

.

So there is going to be huge and radical upheaval of Christchurch - it will have a new face.

Key has been wise to signal the truths of the situation - like saying that 10,000 homes maybe demolished. Despite Civil Defences pedantic protestations and fiddling the figures.

The quicker that people have a chance to get their heads around the altered state of

Christchurch the better. What Key has been trying to do is give as much information to the people of Christchurch as he can when he thinks they are ready for it.

While Key has been superlative in starting to confront people with the realities of the future, what is now needed is for the Government to start making some concrete decisions for the rebuild of the city.

Big picture first and then fill in the details as they go.

The government wont always get it right, but it needs to do stuff and be honest about the expected impact of any decisions.

The resilience of the majority of Christchurch's citizens is amazing and its those same resilient people who will build a new city that will be the pride of the Mainland.

So this month should be all about grieving for those who have died and making the lives of those who are staying as comfortable as possible.

Then come next month - the plan for the Christchurch of the future should be mapped out for all Cantabrians to follow.

New will be different and it will be better. The tough brave proud people of Canterbury will ensure it is so.

WE PREDICT - HONE THE LOSER

Today, Ipredict made one thing very very clear. If John Key and National continue to ride the seemingly endless wave of popularity then Hone has chucked his chance to ever make a difference for his people. If he goes from the Maori Party he has scrapped any chance of walking along side National and improving the lot of the people he says he represents.

Hone is destined to spend his days as an outrider on the opposition benches.

Hone Harawira to win Te Tai Tokerau as independent and Labour to win Te Tai Tonga, leaving Maori Party with three seats
John Key to form government with one or more or the Act, UnitedFuture and Maori parties

He will never ever be in Government.

Key has been extremely clear - its not because he needs the Maori Party that he has asked them to be part of the next government - he wants them to be part of the next government.

He knows that while National and the Maori Party differ on how to do things they do agree that bold things need to be done to lift the aspirations and achievements of Maori who are not doing well.

Hone has literally missed the Waka that will lead the way in changing the future for many Maori who are not

INTO THE BLUE

hatip Aaron Hape.

HUGE CAJONES - WE BOW TO YOU JOHN.

Well we always thought that this year would be interesting . We have faith in John Key and today he delivered. Not because he has the balls to call an election date so far out .. No that requires big balls.

No, sadly in New Zealands political MMP landscape, the really big hairy ball call comes when you tell to Winston Peters to F**k off.

Today JK did just that - he kicked Winstons arse into the political wilderness..

Winston will have opened a bottle of Blue Label Johnny Walker, after he heard Keys statement and be swigging it back thinking of past because now, that's all he has. John Key has consigned him to history.

Goff has no choices left. Vote for Winston and you vote Labour...

It is a stroke of political mastery. Bloody bewdiful. That means we can get back to planting taters and punkins, making jam and pies and biscuits and drinkin wine and ginger beer over in the Wairarapa.

This will be the cruisiest election year in history.

Thank you John Key. You have made our day.

HOLIDAY HOOHAA

We have been doing a bit of grumbling about the unfortunate state of affairs that means that we miss out on two holidays this year - Waitangi Day and Anzac Day.

Now as much as we like to go on holiday this is not something that can just be changed willy nilly.

We were going to proffer a whole set of arguments about why the status quo should remain.

Then we pick up the NZ Herald and find John Key has done it for us.

Grant Robertson is one of the few Labour politicians we respect but this holiday thing smacks of political opportunism in Election year.. Grant is way better than that. He is capable of serious policy development of the sort that can change lives for the better. A private members bill will get Grant some headlines but the subject demeans him.

CILLA MCQUEEN OUR WEAVER OF WORDS

We are delighted that Cilla McQueen has won one of the country's top literary awards. In fact she is already a well recognised and much lauded poet. She is an intensely private woman who has spent the last 20 odd years in Bluff.

FOVEAUX EXPRESS
Diesel sounds aromatic
magenta, oxblood,
mineral smooth
any how as boronia

swivel that levers
a shoepolish lid,
key curls oily metal.
Poetry takes you apart,

puts you back different
as this day's passage
on shapeshifting water,
one to another island

swift as the stroke
of a pen the toothed strait
on the whale's path
chewed through, islets

scattered between,
text in motion
gimballed on muscling
swells, word-ware, cargo.

Bluff, April 2006
  

Awarua

One heron west from wary
shelter safe another sun turn
flower reed or home by other

sense to misty near beyond
his graveyard dreams I pass
between and harbours

double fill to shape were I
so shovelling petal hope to lock
our question in the former language. 

She is a national treasure .

SPIDERS AND SNAKES

How very, very cool. the final mark of a real bloke. A Prime Minister who is not afraid of spiders - really, really big ugly, bite you -scary as shit and then some - spiders.

So for the best PM ever,

BLAZE OF GLORY

It appears that John Key thinks that Mana is likely to fall to Labour. National must have commissioned some polling and its indicated that there is a sizeable gap - making National the underdog. While it looks like even Labours Mr " Oi Oi" Faafoi will romp to victory, Key is going to ensure that National gives Hekia Parata all the support it can muster. Having the PM take a particular interest in the campaign is testament to the candidate that Parata is.

We like it that even in the face of near certain defeat National goes into the battle all guns blazing.

YEE HA!

CACTUS'S BEST YET - SOUTH CANTY FINANCE - READ AND WEEP.

Cactus really should take more time off. Everytime she ceases blogging for the while - she comes back with a show stopper....

Todays marathon effort is about South Canterbury Finance.. Read it.. but set aside some time - its a big fulsome read.

Well done her

NATS BEHEADING ACT

ACT is toast.. We said yesterday that ACT was in parliament only at Nationals favour and it seems that that Key has had enough of the silly buggers and their appalling infighting.

The guillotine blade has been dropped by Key. Thats it. The partnership is over.He has signalled they will be standing a National candidate in Epsom. A good one.

Sad really we think ACT was important to give economic policy a little more of a lean to the right.

Sadly when all the details finally come out - we are confident that it will be revealed that this is all the fault of an egotistical political advisor and a desire for some utu.

EARLY ELECTION?

Well by our calculations there is a 30% chance.

Act have gone into the crisis caucus meeting with both sides claiming to have a neutron bomb that will explode the other faction.

We have been told that there are some sensitive defence docs around and that there is huge angst around who has seen them. Just who has done what is the talk of the town.

We have not seen any documents nor do we want to.

So in the wake of this scandal - the longevity of the party has to be in doubt. If ACT implodes the Maori Party becomes the party of power and indeed that means Hone Harawira could become too powerful for the Nats to stomach.

So an early election? Its possible but not probable.

What is a certainty, is overblown egos will see the downfall of a party that many in National have great affection for - simply because its existence ensures that the Nat's economic agenda is as dry as possible in these centrist, populist, political times.

ROY TO GO?

Apparently..... No surprises here