EARLY ELECTION?

Well by our calculations there is a 30% chance.

Act have gone into the crisis caucus meeting with both sides claiming to have a neutron bomb that will explode the other faction.

We have been told that there are some sensitive defence docs around and that there is huge angst around who has seen them. Just who has done what is the talk of the town.

We have not seen any documents nor do we want to.

So in the wake of this scandal - the longevity of the party has to be in doubt. If ACT implodes the Maori Party becomes the party of power and indeed that means Hone Harawira could become too powerful for the Nats to stomach.

So an early election? Its possible but not probable.

What is a certainty, is overblown egos will see the downfall of a party that many in National have great affection for - simply because its existence ensures that the Nat's economic agenda is as dry as possible in these centrist, populist, political times.