Thursday, 4 September 2008

first the good news

NZ First support has dropped from 6.5 to 2.5 ......

so there are only 2.5 percent of the population who believe elvis is still alive and shot JK and that Winnie and the Truth are warm bedfellows

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4316/

But the nats have dropped back to 44.5 and labour is up to 38

everyone predicted the gap would narrow and that NZ first voters would go to Labour so relatively unsurprising.

But it is a caution to the Nats to stay on message and no get sloppy.

3 comments:

homepaddock said...

The gap had to narrow, but why it did when Clark is welded to Peters defies supports my theory that we should all pass a comprehension test before we can vote :)

homepaddock said...

That should be defies me and supports ...

PaulL said...

Not as bad as it looks. 4% move from NZ First to Labour. That explains why they are up. This was before Helen was known to be actively conniving in Winston’s sham, presumably in the next poll that will be visible.

National’s vote have gone half a percent here, 1 percent there to UF, ACT and Greens. Or, in other words, probably margin of error stuff.

Given that National has ruled out Winston, and given Winston is under 5% and unlikely to hold Tauranga, this actually reduces Helen’s ability to form a government without really changing things for National. Before Helen had Labour (34%) plus NZF (6.5%) for a total 40.5%. Plus whomever else she could cobble together. Now she has Labour (38%) and NZ First (wasted), giving a total of 38%. Like I say, worse off. Expect to see some of the remaining NZF voters also move to Labour, or (given that National ruled out NZF after this poll was completed) potentially move to National.

Good news for everyone (both sides of politics - at least those who aren’t playing realpolitik) is that Winston is toast.